Last Friday’s announcement that the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) has approved cost recovery for the construction of Marinus Link Stage 1 is bad news for Tasmanians, with years of higher electricity bills locked in.
As I stated in my most recent Budget Estimates reply, Marinus isn’t just a mistake — it’s an economic sinkhole. The AER’s reckless decision simply confirmed what we knew was coming.
The decision doesn’t protect everyday consumers, it socialises risk, insists on high costs being passed onto households, and locks Tasmania into a cost burden without genuine clarity on long-term benefit.
We now face a situation where we are being forced to accept the risk. Tasmanians will pay the bills if this $3.47 billion project overruns, and if the new Spirit of Tasmania vessels, berth, and proposed stadium are a gauge, this project will also be subject to its own cost increases.
Tasmanian families and small business will be expected to pick up the tab with any cost overruns through higher transmission charges on their electricity bills.
As Ruth Forrest MLC warned, increasing interconnection capacity with Victoria is likely to see Tasmanian wholesale prices converge with interstate levels, which are significantly higher than what many in Tasmania currently pay.
She has also argued that Tasmanians have been asked to agree to this without transparency or a full accounting of alternatives — and I agree. In the absence of Marinus Link, Tasmania remains protected from rising interstate prices from their own ambitious renewable energy targets.
The Whole of State Business Case wasn’t publicly available until after key decisions were effectively already locked in. That is simply not good governance.
Ms Forrest’s brilliant analysis also shows something the government and AER gloss over: Tasmanian households and businesses are projected to pay significantly more for electricity, while Victoria sees only modest price benefits.
That’s not fairness, that’s an extraction.
This decision socialises financial risk and privatises any upside.
Tasmanians will be worse off, with higher bills, more exposure to interstate price volatility, and less insulation than before.
As I also outlined in December, TasNetworks expects to run a $300 million loss on Marinus Link’s grid connecting project, the North West Transmission Development (NWTD), over 25 years. This means fewer dividends, fewer tax receipts and more pain for the state budget.
The Federal and State Government collusion to hurt everyday Tasmanians is a disgrace.
Tasmanians deserve better transparency, better governance, and energy infrastructure that puts Tasmanian financial interests first — not last.